In June of 2010 I wrote one of the most-read articles on this blog: “2012 (Or The Year We Finally Took Music Back)”. I made a few sweeping predictions, and now that 2012 is only a few days away I thought we’d check in and see how it’s going. (Your reading experience will probably be optimal if you spend a few minutes reading the original post with my predictions, though the below works as a standalone piece just fine).
Radio and Mobile Retail
- I predicted that radio stations would enter the music retail market, enabled by smart phones and mobile sales platforms that have a direct playlist feed including one-click buy links. Exclusive bonus material for these purchases would be content generated by the radio station, including on-air freestyles and interviews. We’re not there yet but I still think it should and can happen. #NOTYET
- One of the digital retail predictions included instant synching of music upon purchase between my mobile phone, cloud music locker and my iTunes at home. Since then Google has launched Google Music, which works with an cloud-based Music Locker. Apple also recently launched their iCloud service, which works exactly like I described. #YES
- A third prediction involved the fictitious start-up Not.es, which provides mobile/online liner notes and credits. Not.es was also later fictitiously to be purchased by Apple and integrated into iTunes. This is a huge part of the listening experience for a music nerd such as myself, and there still isn’t a good solution. #NOTYET (Note: I own the domain albumnot.es and if you are a developer interested in exploring this idea I could make it available. E-mail me.)
Live Concerts and Merchandise
- Against all odds I predicted that a ticketing company would stand up and correct the ridiculous situation with hidden fees, extra charges and of course this hasn’t happened. However, I can genuinely say that Live Nation CEO Nathan Hubbard seems to have his heart in the right place in moving towards a more customer-friendly situation. His recent hires have also been impressive. #NOTYET
- The option for an audience member to obtain a copy of the live recording directly after the show has become more prevalent, but I’ve only seen it happen with physical CDs. I predicted that audience members would be able to get the recording automatically added to their Music Locker by sending a txt message at the show to Amazon’s fictitious service DLVRY, and nothing of the like has happened yet. #NOTYET
- Bundling digital albums with concert tickets and merch has slowly started taking off. As an example, the first two full-length albums we’re releasing at Family Records in 2012 will be released as digital bundles with limited edition physical objects. I’d like to up the ante and turn the digital music component of these bundles into a set amount of upfront music (an EP or LP) and then a monthly subscription-like drip of more recordings, including live tracks and demos. #YES #BUTIWANTMORE
Indie and Major Labels:
- The continued growth in branding strength for indie labels is palatable, and as far as the predicted digital label-wide subscriptions go….keep your eyes peeled for some news in 2012 that will address this. #YES
- “Indie labels function as valuable, identifiable brands that develop and properly identify artists, where as Major Labels function as service providers with financial clout.” We’re getting closer and closer to this! #SORTOF
- “After EMI went bankrupt, and had to sell their publishing to Sony and their masters to Universal…” Hey look, that’s indeed EXACTLY what happened. #YES #PADDINGMYSELFONTHEBACK
- Major Labels operating as a-la-carte partners (for clarification see original post) has not yet happened. We are however seeing more and more new companies pop up, founded by former Major Labels executives, that do just this. I’m going to claim a win here. #YES
Direct-To-Fan:
- I predicted that a massive legacy artist forgoing his many decades long relationship with a major in favor of a direct-to-fan model. We’re seeing this happen right now with a few classic legacy artists, but not yet someone of the caliber of Bob Dylan, my example in the original post. I think it will happen in 2012. #SORTOF
- While I predicted it would be Sigur Ros that would release a concert movie direct-to-fan, with unlimited streaming permissions, it actually ended up being comedian Louis CK that just this month pushed the envelop in this exact way. Expect more of this #YES
Offline Music Retail:
- My vision for a new style of offline music retail was quite elaborate, and it involved enriching the indie music store experience with digital delivery, books, a coffee shop, a small stage for in-stores,music film displays, and more. Another suggestion was to occupy a corner in a youth-oriented non-music retailers like Urban Outfitters. I see this happening all over already and this will keep going! #YES
Press:
- Many of the only music press now offers affiliate buy links for albums they review. For some retailers, like Amazon, it actually even leads to my predicted auto-synch with a customer’s Music Locker immediately after purchase. Pitchfork offers Amazon buy links, and Amazon offers their Music Locker up for cloud-storage and playing across devices. #YES
Eight out of the fourteen 2012 predictions already have #YES check marks behind them! Sure we also have two #SORTOF‘s and four #NOTYET‘s, but this shows us that just as we can imagine the future, we can build it! The state of renewal in the music business is moving at lightning speed. Believe the hype.